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Offensive Predictions 4/20/04 Life around here has been pretty busy lately Ive had to travel quite a bit for work, as well as host both sides of the family while they were in town. So, thoughts about the draft have been few and far between. However, Draft Day is this weekend, and I cant help but begin to focus HEAVILY on what could transpire on Saturday. Since last year was one of the more bizarre drafts Ive ever encountered, I have to consider the possibility of a repeat performance. I ran a quick depth chart (since I couldnt get the Patriots web page to load), and have determined some positions that could use some additional depth. Several websites have identified our needs as Running Back (just traded a second round pick for Corey Dillon), Offensive Line (seems to be thin relative to other positions), Cornerback (recently acquired Otis Smith), and Linebacker (incredible depth, but some are on the verge of retirement, some may not be signed, and others are injury-prone). Therefore, Im inclined to look at the Offensive Line as the top priority, as the other positions seem to be deep enough to handle the potential upheavals. The current gaps in the Offensive Line are the Guard, Center, and possibly long snapper positions. The Center position has been hampered by the difficulty in finding a player who includes shotgun snapping in their repertoire. Fortunately, it appears that Dan Koppen has proven his capabilities in this arena, and Lonie Paxton provides a good complement to him as the trusty long snapper (if he remains healthy). However, drafting another Center, especially one whos also capable of playing Guard or Tackle, would provide the opportunity to supplement the rest of the Offensive Line, providing additional depth. The top contender for Center according to draft data is Jake Grove from Virginia Tech. He has significant bulk at 63" and 303, which would practically place a brick wall in front of Brady. He also played Guard his sophomore year, which is the flexibility required by the Patriots. His aggressiveness makes him a nice complement to the current team mentality. He has the potential for nastiness, so Belichick may have to address that problem before it occurs. The best talent he has is his intelligence, flexibility, and work ethic. He is not flashy and is determined, which makes him a highly favorable candidate. Although hes considered a second-round pick, there is a good possibility he would make a good late first-rounder. The Guard position seems to be relatively sparse this year compared to other positions. Although there are players with a lot of potential, there doesnt appear to be anyone who is clearly first-round material. The top contender in this position, Justin Smiley from Alabama, is capable of playing both right and left guard, which makes him a possibility. His 63" 298 frame makes him a more athletic guard than most, but doesnt always finish run blocks. His frame is reminiscent of another Patriots Guard from days gone by (hint, hint). Chris Snee from Boston College is larger at 62" 314, which makes him more typical size for the position. Unfortunately, that also makes him less nimble. He also has difficulty finishing blocks. Vernon Carey from the University of Miami, at 64, 335, is rated higher than both Smiley and Snee according to many draft experts. He is as strong of a run blocker as there is in this years draft class. But unfortunately there are some lagging injury questions following Carey, which may prompt Belichick to bypass him. Chances are, the top contenders for this position mean they will most likely be drafted in the early second round or later. So, do I have a prediction about what player will be selected first by Belichick and the Patriots? To put it simply: No. I have absolutely no clue. But I think the Center or Guard position, especially if theyre flexible enough to play anywhere on the Offensive Line, is as good a guess as anything. I will however make some general predictions about what will happen this Saturday:
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