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I’m having trouble fulfilling my promise to provide a continuation of the “objective” playoff analysis I began last week in preparation for the games this weekend. Here, dear friends, is why: I believe Indy is getting a free ride (or as free as one can get) during the playoffs.

Before the website is inundated with emails of “You Suck” and other such impressive arguments, let me elaborate…that’s another word for explain for you “Jabber Joe” types. Besides…we already get enough “You Suck” emails on a regular basis, so we’re well aware of how terrible our team is, thank you.

“WHAT WE HAVE HE-YA IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE”

Last season, Colts owner, James Irsay, whined to Commissioner Tagliabue about the “rough treatment” his receivers were “receiving” from strong defensive teams, like the Pats. As a result, NFL refs have been required to “strictly enforce” the following:

Rule 12, Article 4, Exception 1: "Beyond the 5-yard zone ... If the receiver attempts to evade the defender, the defender cannot chuck him, or extend an arm(s) to cut off or hook him, causing contact that redirects, restricts or impedes the receiver in any way."

So, let me see if I got this right. Regardless of whether or not the receiver is trying to catch the ball, the defender cannot defend against any evasion attempts, especially by such Hail Mary-like offenses such as the Colts? HUH?????

THIS AIN’T YOUR DAD’S FOOTBALL

What apparently the rest of the league and fans failed to understand by this strict enforcement was what would shake down during the 2004 season. Individual and league records were shattered in 2004.

We all heard, ad nauseum (more Latin...what is my deal???), about the individual record broken this season. And that, obviously, was the record for Most TDs thrown by a QB in a season. Dan Marino's record of 48 was broken by Peyton Manning, who is fortunate enough to play in one of the crappier divisions in the NFL (and this year, that's a tall order).

What we didn't hear about were the league milestones from this season. They are:

*Scoring was up to its 4th highest total in 37 years
*Passing yardage was up to the 5th highest total in league history
*Pass completions of more than 40 yards rose by over 22%
*59 more touchdown passes were thrown in 2004 than in 2003.
*Nearly 300 more penalties were called in 2004 than in 2003

Some Fantasy Football analysts have written such statements as “No other NFL season has seen that many records set. So how does this affect your league and your fantasy drafts?” I think the more pertinent question right now is, “How does this affect the league and the team concept?” I know this foreign to many, what with Free Agency and everything else, but I think we really have to address the fact that rules such as this do not “level the playing field” but in fact benefit those teams who have to-date been unable to play effectively against stronger and more balanced teams. I ask you: Does that really benefit the league?

STATISTICS 101

Alright, I know that this is the LAST THING you want to see anytime, let alone during the playoffs. But I have to admit, as a Financial Analyst who used to run statistical analyses in “the day,” I couldn’t resist. I mean, c’mon...I’m a geek at heart and numbers are my thing (literally, figuratively, and professionally). So, I ran some basic statistics on one (count ‘em, 1) stat: the number of first downs awarded each team in the AFC as the result of a penalty, and compared that to the number awarded their opponents during the 2004 season. And I have to admit, the results were actually interesting.

For those of you unfamiliar with statistics, some basics facts:

Average is just that, the average number of all numbers in the “population” or “sample”

• Standard Deviation identifies the acceptable “range” of numbers that can fall either above or below the average

• Outliers are those individual numbers that generally fall 2 standard deviations above or below the average.

My first step was identifying the average, then calculating the standard deviation. The standard deviation can then be added to or subtracted from the average to calculate the acceptable range (remember the Bell Curve in high school???? THIS IS IT!!!). Once I had the Bell Curve compiled, I then plotted the individual team stats to see where everyone fell on the curve.

Here’s what I compiled on how the AFC opponents fared this season in first downs awarded from penalties:

The results show a fairly “normal” number of first downs, although the Colts do have the fewest first downs awarded their opponents as a result of a penalty. No conspiracy theory to be found in these numbers. Until I took a look at the results of the opposite set of stats...and then I became my usual paranoid., delusional self.

Here’s how the AFC fared in first downs awarded from penalties committed by their opponents for the 2004 season:

Notice that the AFC again falls within the “normal” range...until you look at the Colts.

Now, funny (NOT haha) how they have the FEWEST first downs awarded to their opponents, and are an OUTLIER (remember the basics...please review if you’ve forgotten) on the high side of the Bell Curve. They are the ONLY TEAM who has a stat that is statistically OUTSIDE the normal range, and it’s to their benefit. Hmmm.

So, my assertion that the Colts have directly benefited from whining about the 5-Yard Exception doesn’t seem so unfounded, no?

My advice to my fellow Pats fans is this: If you decide at any point in the future to discuss this topic with fans of other teams (especially Colts fans or those suffering from “Manning Mania”), you might want to print this article as evidence of your assertion that the Colts can’t seem to win the big games without assistance from the refs.

And if you happen to be one of those who still disagrees with my theorem, I just have one thing to say: “CUT THE STRING AND SHUT UP.” (You may want to read previous articles to get that one.)



				*Back to Main Page of On the Rampage*
		Um, I Have a Problem Here... 1/15/05 I’m having trouble fulfilling my promise to provide a continuation of the “objective” playoff analysis I began last week in preparation for the games this weekend. Here, dear friends, is why: I believe Indy is getting a free ride (or as free as one can get) during the playoffs. Before the website is inundated with emails of “You Suck” and other such impressive arguments, let me elaborate…that’s another word for explain for you “Jabber Joe” types. Besides…we already get enough “You Suck” emails on a regular basis, so we’re well aware of how terrible our team is, thank you. “WHAT WE HAVE HE-YA IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE” Last season, Colts owner, James Irsay, whined to Commissioner Tagliabue about the “rough treatment” his receivers were “receiving” from strong defensive teams, like the Pats. As a result, NFL refs have been required to “strictly enforce” the following: Rule 12, Article 4, Exception 1: "Beyond the 5-yard zone ... If the receiver attempts to evade the defender, the defender cannot chuck him, or extend an arm(s) to cut off or hook him, causing contact that redirects, restricts or impedes the receiver in any way." So, let me see if I got this right. Regardless of whether or not the receiver is trying to catch the ball, the defender cannot defend against any evasion attempts, especially by such Hail Mary-like offenses such as the Colts? HUH????? THIS AIN’T YOUR DAD’S FOOTBALL What apparently the rest of the league and fans failed to understand by this strict enforcement was what would shake down during the 2004 season. Individual and league records were shattered in 2004. We all heard, ad nauseum (more Latin...what is my deal???), about the individual record broken this season. And that, obviously, was the record for Most TDs thrown by a QB in a season. Dan Marino's record of 48 was broken by Peyton Manning, who is fortunate enough to play in one of the crappier divisions in the NFL (and this year, that's a tall order). What we didn't hear about were the league milestones from this season. They are: Scoring was up to its 4th highest total in 37 years Passing yardage was up to the 5th highest total in league history Pass completions of more than 40 yards rose by over 22% 59 more touchdown passes were thrown in 2004 than in 2003. Nearly 300 more penalties were called in 2004 than in 2003 Some Fantasy Football analysts have written such statements as “No other NFL season has seen that many records set. So how does this affect your league and your fantasy drafts?” I think the more pertinent question right now is, “How does this affect the league and the team concept?” I know this foreign to many, what with Free Agency and everything else, but I think we really have to address the fact that rules such as this do not* “level the playing field” but in fact benefit those teams who have to-date been unable to play effectively against stronger and more balanced teams. I ask you: Does that really benefit the league? STATISTICS 101 Alright, I know that this is the LAST THING you want to see anytime, let alone during the playoffs. But I have to admit, as a Financial Analyst who used to run statistical analyses in “the day,” I couldn’t resist. I mean, c’mon...I’m a geek at heart and numbers are my thing (literally, figuratively, and professionally). So, I ran some basic statistics on one (count ‘em, 1) stat: the number of first downs awarded each team in the AFC as the result of a penalty, and compared that to the number awarded their opponents during the 2004 season. And I have to admit, the results were actually interesting. For those of you unfamiliar with statistics, some basics facts: Average is just that, the average number of all numbers in the “population” or “sample” • Standard Deviation identifies the acceptable “range” of numbers that can fall either above or below the average • Outliers are those individual numbers that generally fall 2 standard deviations above or below the average. My first step was identifying the average, then calculating the standard deviation. The standard deviation can then be added to or subtracted from the average to calculate the acceptable range (remember the Bell Curve in high school???? THIS IS IT!!!). Once I had the Bell Curve compiled, I then plotted the individual team stats to see where everyone fell on the curve. OPPONENT FIRST DOWN STATS: Here’s what I compiled on how the AFC opponents fared this season in first downs awarded from penalties: The results show a fairly “normal” number of first downs, although the Colts do have the fewest first downs awarded their opponents as a result of a penalty. No conspiracy theory to be found in these numbers. Until I took a look at the results of the opposite set of stats...and then I became my usual paranoid., delusional self. Here’s how the AFC fared in first downs awarded from penalties committed by their opponents for the 2004 season: Notice that the AFC again falls within the “normal” range...until you look at the Colts. Now, funny (NOT haha) how they have the FEWEST first downs awarded to their opponents, and are an OUTLIER (remember the basics...please review if you’ve forgotten) on the high side of the Bell Curve. They are the ONLY TEAM who has a stat that is statistically OUTSIDE the normal range, and it’s to their benefit. Hmmm. So, my assertion that the Colts have directly benefited from whining about the 5-Yard Exception doesn’t seem so unfounded, no? My advice to my fellow Pats fans is this: If you decide at any point in the future to discuss this topic with fans of other teams (especially Colts fans or those suffering from “Manning Mania”), you might want to print this article as evidence of your assertion that the Colts can’t seem to win the big games without assistance from the refs. And if you happen to be one of those who still disagrees with my theorem, I just have one thing to say: “CUT THE STRING AND SHUT UP.” (You may want to read previous articles to get that one.)
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